China may have been betting on Russia’s loss in the Ukraine War All Along. Here’s why.
The relationship isn’t as cozy as it seems on the surface
Weeks before Russian President Vladimir Putin launched large-scale attacks on Ukraine in the twilight of winter 2022, he visited Beijing and appeared to get the blessing from China’s President Xi Jinping for the onslaught – so long as it happened after the Winter Olympics was over.
But another condition of that early benefaction, well-placed Moscow insiders told me at the time, was that the focus remained on fully seizing the two eastern republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Of course, the Kremlin didn’t honor that and immediately attacked to capture the capital, Kyiv, and other major cities – albeit unsuccessfully.
Cue the tension.
Cut to 2014, and while the war now appears to be in something of a stalemate, the for-sure victory analysts predicted before the war certainly hasn’t come to fruition. However, let’s not rule out that China may have hinged on a Russian defeat all along – and it stands to gain a lot from a potential loss.
After all, what irks Beijing more than losing land that once belonged to its rule? It’s an often-forgotten fact that historically speaking, Russia has seized more Chinese land than any other country, a notion that the Communist Party despises.
China once claimed the vast, resource-rich Asian part of Russia to the east of the Ural Mountains on the Sino-Russian border. Yet Russia overpowered the immense parcel of land through the Amur Annexation of 1958. The region endured military clashes between the USSR and the People’s Republic of China in 1969, amid the height of the Cold War.
In the time since, despite investing billions of dollars in the region, Russia has failed to develop it due to the harsh winters and unforgiving terrain, unable to take advantage of the untapped timber, natural gas, oil and highly sought-after minerals like copper, gold, diamonds, and mercury. In other words, Beijing has a lot to gain by getting back – at least partially – some surrendered land. That would prove a big win for Xi and remove some salt from the wound.
Thus, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has no reason to deter Moscow from continuing its aggression. A pariah and depleted Russian state work to its advantage. When Putin and his cronies have nowhere else to turn but Beijing, the CCP can offer a lifeline – in exchange for a return of some Siberian land.
In other words, a Russian defeat could spell a significant victory for China.
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