The self-styled Islamic State militant group nearly doubled its territory in Mali in less than a year. What can the US do about it?
In less than a year, as the Mali government grapples with political turmoil, militant group ISIS, known as ISIS-GS or ISIS in the Greater Sahara, has almost doubled its terrain of control in the West African country, a panel of United Nations experts claim.
According to the authors, continuous attacks and bloodshed initiated by the group have weakened the authority of signatories to the 2015 peace deal – the government, a pro-government militia and an amalgam of groups pursuing autonomy in the north. Further, the ISIS-induced violence has empowered and positioned al-Qaeda affiliate Jam’at Nusrat Al Islam Wa Al Muslimin (JNIM) as a more capable protector as the ISIS and al-Qaeda outfits continue to duke it out for territory and rule. The spike in brutality comes three years after Mali’s president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was forced out in a coup, which led to a second coup orchestrated by army colonel Assimi Goita, who assumed the transitional presidential title in June 2021 despite widespread international condemnation.
“The Sahel is a hotbed for militant activities, mainly JNIM and I.S. Sahel, in recent years. These groups, driven by various ideologies and motivations, continue to wreak havoc and destabilize the region,” said retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rudolph Atallah, now chief executive officer of White Mountain Research and former Africa Counterterrorism in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. “The consequences of their actions are far-reaching, resulting in the displacement of millions of innocent civilians who are forced to flee their homes in search of safety.”
If the situation wasn’t grim enough, U.N. peacekeepers – who deployed in 2013 for the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) to minimize harm to civilians after Islamist militants and separatist rebels united to seize control of northern Mali – remain on a stringent timeline to entirely withdraw from the country by the end of this year, even as terrorist factions expand their footprint and inflict their grievances on local communities.
Deemed the deadliest U.N. mission in the world, which has claimed the lives of more than three hundred peacekeepers, the end of the 15,000-person force MINUSMA comes after Bamako ordered the foreign presence out in June. The U.N. Security Council subsequently voted to terminate the mandate, much to the chagrin of the U.N. panel, which has since stressed that the mission “played a crucial role” in instituting the agreement and mediating talks between the factions.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, United States Ambassador to the U.N., told the 15-member Security Council that the departure was a “recipe for disaster” that has “already triggered renewed violence on the ground,” which many fear will rapidly worsen as forces are on the clock to abandon six bases across the north, north-eastern and central pockets of the country by December 15. The U.S. Department of State also issued a statement in August expressing “deep concern” of the “worsening violence,” particularly the attacks targeting peacekeepers as they complete their dawn phase of the ten-year undertaking.
“It is in the interest of U.S. allies in North Africa, Europe and the Middle East to contain and eliminate ISIS in the Sahel and Africa. Instability and insecurity have a ripple effect throughout Africa and Europe, such as terrorism, migration, refugee crisis, crime, narcotics trafficking, gun smuggling, and human trafficking,” said Royce de Melo, a Canada-based Middle East and Africa analyst and security and defense consultant. “And there is always the worry about the spread of Islamic extremism throughout the region and beyond.”
What is also a cause for increased concern in Washington circles is the influence of the Russian mercenaries the Wagner Group, whose leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was mysteriously killed along with other top brass in a plane crash north of Moscow this past summer, precisely two months after staging an aborted rebellion against President Vladimir Putin.
After taking over the Presidential position more than two years ago, Goita forged close ties with the shadowy Russian outfit, which has since played a more pivotal role in propping up government forces. While the role Wagner plays in Mali is somewhat ambiguous in the post-Prigozhin era, Moscow’s tentacles will likely not soon diminish from the region. And without a MINUSMA presence, the international community will be hamstrung to shield civilians caught in the crossfire, including at the hands of Wagner.
The U.N. and Human Rights Watch (HRW) have extensively documented heinous abuses by the Malian security forces and Wagner operatives throughout counterinsurgency operations in recent years. Last year, the joint forces were accused of slaughtering more than three hundred people in a single town, which the government denied.
The U.N. panel emphasized that “violence against women and other forms of grave abuses of human rights and international humanitarian law are being used, specifically by the foreign security partners, to spread terror among populations.”
“With Wagner mercenaries on the scene and helping to run the show in Mali, expect more atrocities and war crimes. But I fear that if or when these crimes happen, they will not be reported or underreported, especially with the U.N. leaving, French troops gone, anti-West sentiment, and nothing there in place for the accountability of President Assimi Goïta, his military forces and Wagner. Remember that Wagner has a very good propaganda and media department, and they know how to control what news gets out,” de Melo surmised. “And we all know that when government forces carry out strong-hand tactics and atrocities on the civilian population, by committing war crimes, people on the receiving end will react by often joining the terrorist groups the government is combatting.”
Of course, the alleged Wagner and government abuses are just the tip of the iceberg.
HRW has chronicled extensive killings, rapes, and looting across northeast Mali this year at the hands of Islamist armed groups – namely ISGS and its adversary ISGS – forcing thousands to leave their homes. The watchdog highlighted “mounting abuses” from July onward, echoing the sentiment that the wind-down of MINUSMA has only added to the bloodletting, and noted that the two bands “use a strategy of displacement to demonstrate their power and impose their authority.”
Atallah also emphasized that the withdrawal of peacekeepers has devastating effects on the local population in Mali, with thousands of individuals previously employed in support roles are now left without jobs, amplifying the already dire economic situation.
“This sudden void has swiftly been filled by a combination of Wagner troops, FAMA (Malian Armed Forces), and militant groups. The presence and collaboration of these three entities are highly detrimental to the well-being of the country and its people,” he explained.
The deteriorating security situation, exacerbated by a porous border and feeble economy, is further aggravated by the recent military coup in neighboring Niger.
“Since the coup, I.S. in the Greater Sahel has launched numerous attacks across the country,” Atallah said. “Refugees from Mali who sought refuge in Niger now have nowhere to go.”
De Melo also highlighted that while the coup might have given the terrorists in Niger a chance to catch some air and regroup, borders mean nothing to terrorists in the Sahel.
“They go where they can, when they can and expand when they can,” he stressed. “Any chaos or government weakness is an opportunity for the terrorists; so, because of their shared borders, what happens in Niger with regard to the terrorist groups, will affect terrorism and terrorist activities in Mali and vice versa.”
All this makes the possibility of another war in the region a very real and jarring possibility, with the U.N. panel conveying distress that the 2015 peace deal, which largely safeguarded civilians against an Islamist insurgency, could crumble without U.N. arbitration.
And what happens in West Africa likely won’t stay in West Africa.
“The threat for the United States and Europe emanating from West Africa, including Mali, is currently growing. Although it is correct to argue that both ISIS and al-Qaeda are basing their local influence and social support on already existing local grievances, ISGS and JNIM continue to subscribe to the extremist terrorist ideology of ISIS and al-Qaeda, respectively,” said Dr. Hans Jakob-Schindler, Senior Director of the Counter Extremism Project (CEP). “One core aspect of either one of these terrorist ideologies is the obligation to attack those that are seen as enemies, for which in the al-Qaeda variant, the West is prioritized, and in the ISIS variant relates to everyone else outside ISIS, including targets in the West. Therefore, with the growing influence of these affiliates in West Africa and with the consolidation of their influence in the region, we have to expect increasing efforts in this regard.”
Jakob-Schindler further stressed that the destabilizing situation in Mali significantly increases the number of refugees fleeing the conflict zone and trying to reach Europe.
“As in the past, there is a risk that ISIS and/or al-Qaeda will misuse this situation to send terrorist operatives towards Europe in preparation for attacks,” he asserted. “Finally, the massive strengthening of ISIS and al-Qaeda forces in West Africa also increases the risk of radicalizing individuals in Europe and the U.S. as sympathizers of ISIS and al-Qaeda perceive the situation in West Africa as a success for their terror networks.
And Andrew Lewis, President of the operational and intelligence services firm The Ulysses Group, pointed out that without the U.N. presence, U.S. interests are hindered by a lack of monitoring and countering the ISIS reach, as well as losing insight into opposing Chinese activity in the region.
“Despite this, we allocate very little funding, personnel or assets to this AOR so that it will get worse,” he conjectured. “With respect to ISIS and similar groups, a concern is and has been disrupting their ability to get to the U.S. We have identified human smuggling operations and networks spanning from Yemen across the Sahel into Colombia and up through Latin America to the U.S. This goes back to at least 2015.”
According to Atallah, immediate action by the U.S. and its partners should be taken to reinforce peacekeeping efforts, including exploring opportunities to deploy additional peacekeeping forces or collaborate with regional organizations to fill the security void left by the withdrawal, as well as offering humanitarian aid and support, focusing on essential needs such as shelter, food, healthcare, and education.
“This will help alleviate the suffering and vulnerability of the local communities and refugees. And as conditions worsen, many refugees are compelled to seek a better life by attempting to migrate northward towards Libya. However, this journey exposes them to exploitation by human traffickers who prey on their vulnerability. The E.U., in particular, is at risk of a rude awakening as this influx of desperate refugees opens up avenues for slave labor, sex trafficking, organ harvesting, and even ritual killings,” he added. “We need to combat human trafficking by strengthening efforts to dismantle human trafficking networks, provide support to victims, and enhance border security to prevent further exploitation of refugees. It is imperative that we act swiftly and decisively to prevent further suffering and displacement of innocent people.”
PLEASE CONSIDER A PAID SUBSCRIPTION TO THIS SUBSTACK TO HELP KEEP INDEPENDENT, AGENDA-FREE WRITING AND JOURNALISM ALIVE. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR SUPPORT.
For speaking queries please contact meta@metaspeakers.org
Follow me on Instagram and Twitter for more updates
HOLLIE’S BOOKS (please leave a review)
** Short read of meaningful lessons gleaned from the ordinary forced to become extraordinary
Order your copy of “Afghanistan: The End of the US Footprint and the Rise of the Taliban Rule” due out this fall.
For those interested in learning more about the aftermath of war, please pick up a copy of my book “Only Cry for the Living: Memos from Inside the ISIS Battlefield.”
If you want to support small businesses: