Rebels Take Aleppo: What This Means for Syria’s Future, and How it Implicates the U.S
The breach of Aleppo by Syrian rebels in November 2024 marks a significant turning point in the long-standing Syrian civil war. This offensive, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was the first large-scale operation of its kind in years and reflects the evolving dynamics of the conflict.
How and Why the Breach Happened
The operation, dubbed "Deterrence of Aggression," began as a response to intensified shelling by Syrian government forces on rebel-held areas in western Aleppo. This resulted in significant civilian casualties, galvanizing opposition forces. HTS and allied rebel factions employed a combination of heavy artillery, rocket fire, and rapid ground advances to capture strategic positions, including towns and a Syrian army base in the western Aleppo countryside. The swift collapse of government forces in certain areas enabled rebels to secure control over parts of Aleppo for the first time since 2016.
Preparation for the offensive had been ongoing for months, with rebels stockpiling weapons and coordinating strategies. Government forces, stretched thin due to commitments across multiple fronts, were unable to effectively counter the assault.
Implications for the Syrian War
This development shifts the balance of power in northern Syria, potentially emboldening rebel factions and reigniting hostilities in regions previously stabilized under tenuous ceasefires. The breach undermines the Syrian government’s claims of control and exposes vulnerabilities in its defenses, particularly in areas long considered strongholds.
For Russia and Iran, key allies of the Assad regime, this setback represents a significant challenge. Both countries have invested heavily in supporting the Syrian government and may now be forced to commit additional resources to prevent further losses. This could strain their military and financial capacities, especially given Russia's concurrent involvement in other international conflicts.
On the other hand, Turkey, which has historically supported certain opposition groups, might leverage the situation to expand its influence in northern Syria. However, the resurgence of HTS—a group designated as a terrorist organization by many countries—complicates Turkey’s position and raises concerns about the broader implications of its involvement.
Impact on the United States
For the U.S., the breach poses both strategic and humanitarian challenges. Washington has largely reduced its direct involvement in Syria but continues to support anti-ISIS operations and provide humanitarian aid. The resurgence of active conflict in Aleppo could lead to new waves of displacement, intensifying the refugee crisis and increasing demands on U.S.-backed relief efforts.
Additionally, the U.S. must navigate the complexities of counterterrorism. The prominence of HTS in this offensive underscores the ongoing influence of extremist factions in Syria, which could threaten regional stability and U.S. interests in the Middle East. This situation may prompt Washington to reassess its policies in Syria, particularly regarding support for moderate opposition groups and diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.
What’s Next?
The breach of Aleppo is likely to trigger a new phase of conflict in Syria. The Assad government is expected to mount a counteroffensive, possibly with increased support from Russia and Iran. Meanwhile, the rebels’ gains could inspire similar uprisings in other parts of the country, further destabilizing the region.
The situation underscores the fragile nature of ceasefires and the enduring challenges of achieving a lasting resolution to the Syrian civil war. For now, the future remains uncertain, but the breach of Aleppo has undeniably altered the trajectory of the conflict.
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