Tracking China's Nuclear Build-Up: A Cause for Concern?

As the United States considers deploying nuclear-armed, sea-launched missiles as a deterrent to its adversaries, China is rapidly building and modernizing its nuclear arsenal at an unprecedented pace.

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists estimates that China now possesses roughly 500 nuclear warheads, a number experts believe will grow quickly in the coming years. A 2023 Pentagon report highlights a significant increase in China’s operational nuclear weapons under President Xi Jinping and projects an arsenal of over 1,000 warheads by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.

However, China’s motivations remain a topic of intense debate: Is this nuclear buildup part of a defensive modernization effort aimed at matching U.S. levels, or does it signal a more aggressive posture on the world stage?