Was China the real winner of the Afghan war?
Over two decades, the U.S. government spent $2.3 trillion in the Afghanistan war that claimed the lives of 2,324 American military personnel, 3,917 U.S. contractors and 1,144 allied troops – in addition to permanently wounding tens of thousands more.
But after that sacrificed blood and treasure, has China emerged as the ultimate winner of the long and devastating war?
“There are two sides to this question. On the one hand, there is a certain degree of truth in arguing that Beijing was happy to see the U.S. pack up and leave Afghanistan because, in so doing, the Chinese could rid themselves of any American military presence in the broader Central Asian region. China does not want a successful democratic model emerging on its doorstep in Central Asia,” Benjamin Barton, an Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham Malaysia (UNM), told me. “On the other hand, though, there is really nothing to be won in Afghanistan for China or anyone else, other than the Taliban and its supporters, of course. China is now one of the few third-party countries responsible for overseeing stability in Afghanistan – a country which has known nothing but turmoil in its short-lived existence.”
Dennis Wilder, a Professor and Senior Fellow at the Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, also noted that while it is too soon to declare China the clearcut victor, Beijing is “certainly working to take advantage of the U.S. precipitate pull out so that it can gain access to the natural resources of Afghanistan, as well as build influence.”